He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite. The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite – think Appreciate It or Douvan – but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to ‘get’ Facile Vega.
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Paul Nicholls has enjoyed enjoyed a relative resurgence in the last two renewals courtesy of that hat-trick of Grade 1 scores. He comes to Cheltenham Festival 2021 in similar form to 2019. It is fair to say that nobody really knows what to expect of the Cullentra House yard, currently fronted by Denise Foster while Gordon Elliott serves out his suspension. What we do know is that flagbearers like Envoi Allen have been moved to other yards and that has to have a negative bearing on overall figures this time around.
Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse
The NAP was finally back in the winners enclosure yesterday so hopefully we can put a run of winners together now. We head to Beverley on Tuesday afternoon and GOLDEN WAR can open his account. This son of Churchill ran his best race to date when beaten a length over C&D last month and given that form has been well advertised since I think he can go one better here. He’ll need to improve again probably but he’s been gelded since and the hood goes on too which should sharpen him up. Sydney Street left his debut run behind to finish third at Ffos Las last time and will be the danger if building on that again. Rich King also looks to have a future and he should do better at some point too.
- I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.
- This is a really tricky race with if’s and but’s about most of them.
- Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 13 renewals there have been 2 winning favourites in the race.
- On both occasions, the six-year-old was strong at the finish over two miles and things didn’t go to plan when my selection returned 13 th of 19 – Reshoun was ahead in fifth – in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last month.
- But it is worth further squinting at the data, because it relates that those aged five or six notched 27 of the 39 wins (69%) from just 49% of the runners.
- As with any form of betting, there are always risks involved.
- However, more recently, the omnipotent Closutton barn has enjoyed success in the Mares’ Hurdle only once in the last five years, and not at all in the last three.
- It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse.
Irish runners versus UK runners
State Man last year and this year’s Arkle 3rd Saint Roi 2 years ago. Hunters Yarn wouldn’t be out of place in the Grade 1 novice hurdles this year and is a multiple bumper winner and won his maiden hurdle at Naas by 13 lengths. The standout juvenile all season has been the well regarded LOSSIEMOUTH.
The best bookmaker offers
Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write). Bound to be a nice bit of pace on, and should be fair to most run styles. More Willies out front than a Festival urinal, and one of them will tow Ballyburn into the race if he doesn’t make his own running. Maintaining discipline and patience in your betting approach is essential for long-term success. Implementing prudent bankroll management strategies is crucial for sustaining long-term betting success.
They’re off in the Champion Chase
He was being closed down by Riviere d’Etel, who had led to the last fence before blundering, but was conceding nine pounds to that five-year-old mare. Saint Sam, who had led until the second last, was a further four lengths back while the quietly fancied Haut En Couleurs was an early faller. Edwardstone tops the pile on just about every ratings compiler’s list, and he heads the betting, too. Brought down on fencing debut, that inauspicious introduction has long been forgotten as he has subsequently strung four straight chase wins together, three of them in Graded company, one a Grade 1. He jumped very well at Warwick in the Grade 2 Kingmaker last time but, prior to that, had put in the odd clumsy one. With a versatile run style and the best form in the book, he has a very obvious chance to add to trainer Alan King’s two previous Arkle scores.
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However, with the benefit of expert insight, or even just a second pair of eyes, you can more readily identify the best betting options. The leading trainer in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Kevin Ryan who has won the race five times with those five winners coming from Advanced (2007), Our Jonathan (2011), Captain Ramius (2012), Brando (2016) and Bielsa (2021). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Ayr Gold Cup are Richard Fahey (2 wins), David O’Meara (2 wins) and Andrew Balding (2 wins). Those mythical beasts, the favourite backers, are often «on good terms with themselves» – as the vernacular of the lazy studio pundit hackneys – because, well, because the favourite wins more often than any other market rank.
- Under the conditions of the race, we can see that ‘Led’ (green blob) types have fared best.
- Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time.
- “He’s run very well, he showed a lot of speed early on and the stiff finish just caught up with him in the last 100 yards,” said the trainer.
- Hayley Turner was proud of the performance of Docklands after the pair combined to fill the runner-up spot.
- Specifically, she’s taken in the Galway Hurdle (7th), a Deauville handicap (1st), the Cesarewitch (2nd), a Navan handicap hurdle (tailed off), the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3rd) and that defeat of Queen’s Brook last time.
- Then we head to Wales for the two meetings on Tuesday with good prize money on offer at Bangor and further south for Chepstow.
- I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.
History of Racing in Cheltenham
He really had to step at a few of the obstacles, but his engine proved far superior to his other graded rivals. Connections probably have eyes on the Gold Cup 2022 after Bolts Up Daily that Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners display. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
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Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor’s of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it’s more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme – a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique’s two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he’s only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time.
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Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.
- Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners.
- CommissionYou’ll need to take into account commission paid to Betfair ranging from 2 – 5% depending on how much you bet with them.
- The standout juvenile all season has been the well regarded LOSSIEMOUTH.
- He’s not been nearly as flashy as those shorter in the market but he’s highly effective and has been well on top each time in spite of narrower margins of victory.
- This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie.
- Teenager Jack Kennedy made sure there was no hard luck story by keeping out of trouble on the outside and cruised into contention on the final bend, taking up the running from Vision Des Flos.
- You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge.
The best bet of Wednesday runs in the hardest race of the day. The Fred Winter is like a game of poker with trainers keeping all sorts of tricks up their sleeves with these inexperienced horses. His trainer, Brian Ellison, had the third in this race last year with Nietzsche and I sense The King Of May is a far better horse than him. Brian does not say much but when he does speak, you listen. He’s a very shrewd trainer who has Definitely Red in the Gold Cup. With the more recent addition of betting apps, it has become easier than ever before for punters to back a horse.
Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for Race 5 👇🏼
The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower. On that basis, it’s easy enough to bypass Gaelic Warrior at such cramped odds and I don’t really want to be with The Tide Turns at not much bigger, though naturally I respect the chance of both. Burning Victory was the beneficiary of Goshen’s black swan event at the last in the Triumph Hurdle of 2020 and she’s travelled all over the place since. Specifically, she’s taken in the Galway Hurdle (7th), a Deauville handicap (1st), the Cesarewitch (2nd), a Navan handicap hurdle (tailed off), the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3rd) and that defeat of Queen’s Brook last time.
This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins. Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price. His form this season is 1P1, wins in the Galway Hurdle (off 145 in a field of 19 on goodish ground) and a Naas Grade 3 in a small field on soft sandwiching a flunk when he was found to have been post-race clinically abnormal. I’m not entirely sure what that means but perhaps it was a fibrillating heart; conjecture aside, if he can bring his A game he is one of the few within a stone of State Man on ratings. Although they’ve been getting closer in recent times (2nd and 4th last year), the Irish don’t have a great overall record in the Ultima (0/38 since 2007) and you have to go back to 2006 and Tony Martin’s Dun Doire to find their last winner.
Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.
More Horse Racing Tips
- I just wish we had eight runners for that 3rd each way place.
- There are many factors to consider when looking for racing tips.
- Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.
- Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since.
- This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas.
- That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it – over today’s course and distance and in today’s class.
- Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.
Embassy Gardens, like Corbett’s Cross, was a big fancy (ante-post favourite) for the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago, but pulled up before running down the field at Punchestown. As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds. Mention this in hushed tones, but is it possible that this year’s Irish cohort are not as good as normal?
Northfields Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Irish Champions Weekend)
Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).
Look at how the horse is built, how he walks, his presence and demeanour. Just when you think you have a race sorted, a horse you hadn’t even considered might surprise you. Sometimes the little horse who might not look much defeats the big horse.
Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.
In front of Telmesomethinggirl but largely whacked before and since this term was Heaven Help Us, winner of the Coral Cup a year ago. Like the favourite, she brings Festival-winning form to the party and her form string at this intermediate distance is 12. She seems better going left-handed and with just a little ease in the ground, conditions she’ll get here.
Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro. «The horse is very good. I wasn’t happy with the position I had during the race, but he’s such a good horse that he got me through.» Teenager Jack Kennedy made sure there was no hard luck story by keeping out of trouble on the outside and cruised into contention on the final bend, taking up the running from Vision Des Flos.
Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year’s contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race’s unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning). He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow. Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay won last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out.
Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future. Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern. Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds. He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.
At the last five Festivals, they have collectively bagged 82 of the 140 races. Throw in Henry de Bromhead – whose team is bolstered by the high profile addition of the Cheveley Park bluebloods – and Dan Skelton and you have six handlers responsible for two-thirds of the Festival winners in the last five years. Between them, they’ll be long odds-on to take at least half of the 28 prizes on offer next week. That brace of novice G1’s, the second of which was at beyond three miles, advertised his prospective Gold Cup claims, something a facile match score over The Big Breakaway did little to rebuke.